Teams fare much better when batting first as statistics suggest chasers lost the majority of the last 64 finals.

By Arvind Iyengar

India’s decision to field first in the Asia Cup final was criticised by many. But it’s not just the men in blue, almost all teams perform significantly better when setting score as opposed to chasing one in a big final.

On July 6th 2008, India won the toss, put Sri Lanka in to bat and the rest is history. Another final lost for Team India and they have definitely earned the tag of chokers after failing at the last hurdle so many times.

Should India have elected to bat first?

Definitely, considering Sri Lanka have never won a final while chasing since the start of the new millennium. India also have a better record when putting the runs on the board first. But it’s not just these two teams - the numbers say that almost all countries across all grounds perform better in a one-day international final when batting first. Here is a closer look.

Since Jan 1st 2000, there have been a total of 64 finals, of which 37 have been won by the side batting first and 22 by the side chasing. There was one low scoring tie between England and Australia in the sensational summer of 2005, while the remaining 4 finals have ended with no-result. For the purpose of this analysis, the no-result matches have been ignored and a tie has been considered as half a win.

Active finalists

These are teams that have played 15 or more finals, and these “active” finalists have a) done well in the group stages of the tournament to get to so many finals and b) played a lot of cricket!

The best side in the world Australia have played in 25 finals, with 19 wins, five losses and one tie. In the 16 times they have batted first, Australia have a stunning 84% win record, but that drops to 67% when chasing. They have lost to Sri Lanka, England and India- all at home, when going after a target.

Pakistan are 8-11(wins-losses) in their 19 finals, but enjoy at 63% win record when batting first, but are a paltry 27% when chasing.

The trend is most pronounced with Sri Lanka. The Men in Darker Blue have won 11 of their 13 when setting a score but when chasing their record is worse than Roger Federer at the French Open Finals, going 0-4. That includes a loss on the grandest stage of them all- in the World Cup final.

As bad as India have been in all finals, even they enjoy a marginally higher win record, up by three percentage points when taking first guard.

The Others

Three other teams have played close to ten finals since the turn of the century.

South Africa is 2-1 batting first and 3-3 chasing, again a better record but too few matches to really call it a noticeable trend. Likewise, the West Indies are 2-2 and 1-6, a pathetic 14% win record when going after a score. The only exception to the rule among the most active seven nations is England, who enjoys a 58% record while chasing but are just 1-3 batting first. For all the finals in which these seven teams have played, the side batting first has gone on to win 2 out of 3 matches.

The Grounds

On the flat pitches in the sub-continent and in Sharjah, the maxim is to bat the opposition out of the game. In the 18 finals played in India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sharjah, the side batting first enjoys a 14-4 record. The lesson from this is that if you win the toss against a fellow Asian side on one of these flat pitches, you better bat first.

In the 5 finals played in the West Indies, the chasers have won just once!

On the bouncy tracks of Australia and South Africa, the numbers are more balanced, but teams setting a score still enjoy a 13-9 advantage.

England again is the only anomaly, where five of the seven matches have been won by the country fielding first, and one of those seven ended in a tie.

On all other tracks, the record stands at 5-3.

In a nutshell, win the toss, bat first and chances are you will have another title to add to the trophy cabinet. Wile E Coyote never caught the Road Runner, Elmer Fudd never caught Bugs Bunny, Tom never caught Jerry and now India failed to catch Sri Lanka.

Maybe the thrill of the chase is not that thrilling after all.

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