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Mike Rehu

"It's déjà vu all over again" is a quote attributed to a wacky baseball coach but the mashed-up phrase is ringing in my ears this week as we build to Sunday's Rugby World Cup final in Auckland, New Zealand.

Kiwis have been hospitable hosts to the thousands of fans, who've come for the trip of a lifetime in the rugby-frenzied country but their team has not shown as much generosity on-field; they've swept all before them at this year's tournament and now they face the un-fancied French team in the final.

Les Tricolores have, more often than not, been described as les Miserables at this tournament. They showed their true red white and blue colours once when they smoked and choked the English in a convincing 19-12 quarter-final victory. They were beaten by the Kiwis and Tonga in pool play and limped home by one point against Wales who played one man down for the last hour of the semi-final. The coach and the players hate each other and have been at each others throats for six weeks. Seasoned writers like the Telegraph's ex-England international lock Paul Ackford have practically awarded the Cup to the All Blacks days out from the match.

New Zealand have been down this road before with the French, and it's not a pretty vista on World Cup Lane. I couldn't tell you where I was when Princess Diana died, but I sure as hell remember my co-ordinates when the All Blacks lost to France at the Rugby World Cups in 1999 and 2007. Sunday October 31, 1999, I was producing a 10-pin bowling tournament in Seoul, and we were in a Korean-style karaoke bar with a kim chi stench and we had persuaded the barman to turn one of his Samsung sets onto STAR Sports for the rugby. Half an hour to go, 24-10 up to the All Blacks and it was my turn to sing. By the time I'd belted out Otis Redding's 'Sitting on the Dock of the Bay' and U2's 'Sunday Bloody Sunday' I'd cleared the bar of local patrons and France had hit the lead! They went on to win 43-31 in the most incredible turn-around seen on the rugby field. Sunday Bloody Sunday indeed!

Sunday October 7, 2007. I'd just got back from the first ever cricket Twenty20 World Championships in South Africa and the All Blacks had cleaned everyone up in their pool while we were there. We'd been teasing the Springbok fans about how boring their team was and all Kiwis were looking forward to the semi-final where New Zealand were due to meet England. Trouble is nobody had told the French to lie down in the quarter-final. I remember writing a column issuing a word of warning after form players Chris Jack and Doug Howlett were rested for the game to give players coming back from injury some match play. The French were irresistible on that day and tackled themselves to a stand still, winning 20-18. And South Africa won the William Webb Ellis Trophy playing some ordinary, but winning rugby. Last laugh to my mates from the high veldt!

With the cocksure comments from the press and the boasting emanating from the fans this week I can sniff the deathly air of complacency coming from New Zealand. The one man who has got it right is Brad Thorn the grizzled All Black lock, who apart from giving some impressive Lou Ferigno Incredible Hulk poses in the final minutes of the last two knock out games is a grounded, modest individual. He is constantly reminding the public his team hasn't won anything yet and that everyone has to focus. I hope his basso growls are getting through to his team mates as well.

There are several strong reasons why New Zealand will win on Sunday. The All Blacks have the best front row in the tournament. Jerome Kaino is the strongest and scariest forward in world rugby, it hurts when he smashes you and he rules the contact area. Piri Weepu is playing headstrong rugby and is a calming influence on the young third-string flyhalf Aaron Cruden. Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith are the best centre pairing the nation has ever had. The freakish Israel Dagg breaks the line more than any of his contemporaries. The All Blacks were fitter, faster and stronger when they easily beat France 37-17 a month ago.

There are two reasons why France will win. The All Blacks' complacency. And because the French are the only rugby team in the world who has shown they can laugh in the face of logic and wisdom and win against the odds against favoured New Zealand teams.

It is compelling stuff, the All Blacks will need to be at full steam and it will not be a one way contest. Watch it live this Sunday from 3.30 pm Singapore time on STAR Sports.